Two communities price Strait-of-Hormuz risk every day — ships, by how they move; markets, by what they charge. HDM measures both on one scale and publishes the gap.
Each composite standardized to a rolling z-score (250-day, winsorized ±4). The distance between the two markers is today's divergence.
Headline D. Shaded bands: neutral (|D|<1), watch (1–2), action (>2).
The tier-0 launch runs live components below; the rest are flagged until their feeds land (Global Fishing Watch AIS, broker war-risk panel, and others). Composites use only available, non-stale components — the freeze is already anchored behind the record.
Every record binds to the pre-registered methodology and chains to the prior day.
Sources: IMF PortWatch · Global Fishing Watch · FRED · EODHD. Published daily 17:00 UTC. This is a research indicator, not a settlement benchmark; contract applications reference raw observables or the frozen-baseline Level series, never these scores. Full methodology & the experiment →